This is a summary of our long and painful 2011 harvest:

OREGON:

We brought some Riesling from Oregon but also some Pinot Noir and Pinot Gris for our new Oregon winery project. It was a challenging harvest in OR overall following an unseasonably cool spring and summer (Thank you la Nina). We thought that all would be saved by a great August and a promising September but the weather turned cold mid-September slowing down ripening considerably. We were aggressive with yield reduction to allow what was left to ripen a bit more. The saving grace has been the dry weather which has reduced fungal pressure in OR tremendously. We saw little or no rot on any varietal. Most folks started to harvest mid-October wrapping harvest in 2 to 3 weeks – bit of a flash harvest ahead of the rain that are in the forecast as far as the eye can see now. Overall the fruit is low in sugar (21 Brix) but fruit flavors are ripe with no greenness, and colors on the Pinot Noir are very decent indeed. I think that overall it will be a nice vintage with delicate flavors that will reward wineries that tend to go for elegance against power. The Riesling was low Brix and is slotted for a Kabinett style.

WASHINGTON:

Same pattern than OR in WA minus the rain factor and plus frost issues. The summer was very cool and 2011 will be remembered as one of the coldest vintage on record, cooler than 2010 even – 2011 is the 8th coldest year on record sandwiched between 1976 and 1970. The yields were quite lower than last year due to some winter frost damage and some aggressive thinning after bloom. WA harvest as a whole will probably be 20% below average yield which has probably helped to get most fruit to good ripeness. Acids are high and everyone brought some nice botrytis with the fruit. Overall it is a little riper of a vintage (bit weird but the acids were much lower than 2010) for us and we will be able to make every Riesling style we usually produce. We are leaving a few acres out to see if this is a good ice wine year, we might get something good out of this cold weather!

As we are entering the final stretch of the grape growing season, the growers and wineries of Washington State have published their projected harvest numbers. Below are the top key points:

• Total estimated crop is 20% below last year due to a freeze kill this winter – 128K tons vs 160K tons in 2010 – this is the equivalent of 1.8M cases
• Red are more affected than whites – reds down 26%, whites down 8%
• Among reds, major loser is Cabernet Sauvignon (-39%) and all major red varietals are down
• Among whites, major loser is Chardonnay (-17%) and somewhat Riesling (-13%). Pinot Gris is actually projected a good 20% above 2010 due to speculative planting putting pressure on Pinot Gris prices
• Looking at the future, 2012 could be as high as 176K tons, 10% higher than 2010 – so there is no long term shortage

Overall this is a pretty decent projection. We should not see any major shortage except Cabernet Sauvignon. If the weather stays above 90F until mid-September we could actually have a stellar vintage with low crop and mild temperatures -> Perfect!

I have been looking lately at the environmental impact of screwcaps closure and I came accross an interesting survey from a company called “Quantis” related to the carbon footprint of the wine supply chain. I think the study was sponsored by the European Aluminum producer, so not fully removed from the industry but Quantis is a serious third party with good credentials: http://www.quantis-intl.com/

Above is the chart that sort out the different sources of carbon emission during the supply chain – from the vineyard to the consumer’s table. Several very interesting points:

1) The winery impact is really small, may 9% of total carbon emmission. So solar panels, water reduction program and other winery improvements are nice but really they don’t move the needle much – though at Pacific Rim we have very good water, waste and electrical conservancy program

2) Glass is about 40% of the total carbon emission – holy molly, that is a lot. Please note that Pacific Rim is using 95% EcoSerie glass, the lightest glass available in the USA (made in USA – 393 g/bottle). We also don’t use pallets for our case goods (they are heavy, they take room, they have a carbon footprint from manufacturing, etc..)

3) Stopper is really not a big deal as far as carbon emission is concerned – Retail transportation (ie from the winery to the retailer) is more important than closure – again light weight glass would help here

4) The other big carbon emiter is the consumer driving to the store, picking up the wine, using the wine etc… – about 25% of the carbon footprint.  We should buy 12 bottles at a time to make things more efficient!

Will report on my screwcap findings next week

Quick update on the growing season (or lack of growing season one might say). The cold weather on the West coast is affecting the Columbia Valley and right now the vine growth is pretty anemic. Check out the growing degree day chart below:

2011 is not even off the ground – 10 degree days total – ouch. We need to see the temperature kick off a bit soon – please? Added to our temperature worries, many vineyards were hit by frost this winter and some vineyards were nailed pretty badly (none of ours apparently -there is a watchful angel for Riesling producers). The combo of winter damage and aa anemic growing season right now will make for a rocky vintage – we can still catch up of course if finally the weather starts cooperating.

Lastest National Agricultural Statistics Service grape data for the mighty State of Washington are in and Riesling was the number one varietal harvested in total tons in 2010. An incredible performance considering that I suspect the total Riesling tonnage was down due to a heavy Botrytis pressure.  Here is the list:

#1: Riesling: 33.5K tons +4.4% vs 2009, prices slightly up vs 2009

#2: Cabernet Sauvignon: 31.9K tons, +15.6%, prices slightly up

#3: Chardonnay: 28.6K tons, -14.4%, prices slightly up

#4: Merlot: 28.3K tons, +14.1%, prices slightly up

#5: Syrah: 10.9K tons, +9%, prices slightly up

Overall the State is estimated to have harvested 160,000 tons or about 10.4 Million cases. Riesling alone was probably about 2.2 million cases. Below is an estimate of where it went:

- Chateau St Michelle and friends (Snoqualmie, Columbia Crest, Eroica program): 1.1 Million

- Hogue: 0.25M

- Pacific Rim: 0.16M (that one I know for sure)

- Ascentia (Covey Run+Columbia): 0.14M

- all others: 0.55M

Would not have said it better than the wine economist at: http://wineeconomist.com/2010/11/30/retail-wine-sales-big-versus-hot-hot-hot/

A good quick read that would once again show our dear Riesling performing very well.

All good things have to come to an end, so celebrate the end this long and challenging harvest. We are in the final stretch and will be picking the Biodynamic Wallula vineyard this week and next and will be closing our doors around the 20th of November – the latest harvest in recent history. The preliminary results are showing high acid wines, nice botrytis tone and low yields overall. The high acids will push us to produce sweeter styles this year to balance out the extra acids. The botrytis that we usually desperately look for in normal vintages has overwhelmed us in 2010 – the wines should reflect a more waxy, honey like character this vintage. Lower yields will guarantee a short supply of WA Riesling this year, it will be interesting to see how the market receives a very Germanic vintage from Washington – me like it despite the added stress, you?

The results from the GDD race are in, 2003 will end at 2325 which will put it in on par with 1974 and 1970 – 2003 is now the 9th coolest year in WA on record (http://rieslingrules.com/the_book/2010/09/20/). The final GDD chart for the year is below:

As I have hinted before, we will probably not make a dry Riesling this year except for our Wallula Biodynamic and Solstice Rieslings single vineyards (they will probably be close to 1% RS so not fully “trocken”). As far as cool and new wines we are exploring, we are still trying to make a decent TBA, very scary wine to make, the jury is still out on this one so stay tune. Another experiment this year is a 100% carbonic maceration Gamay – that is also a bit of a work in progress right now.

Let’s check in in two weeks when all the grapes are in.

Quick post to show you the last 41 years of cumulative GDD data (Yakima Valley) that I got today:

 Exciting table, no? The warmest years were 1987, 2003, 1992, 1990 and 1998. The coolest were 1984, 1971, 1975, 1999 and 1980. Right now we are trailing slightly behind 1999 so we could have the coldest year on record. What does that mean for quality? Well, it will really depends of night time temperature I believe. If we can hang our fruit without a night time frost for another 5 to 6 weeks, we will have a great vintage like 1999. If not, we will have a repeat of 1984 which, I have heard, was a disaster.

Las week I came across a grocery store wine sales report that outlined the main varietals and the main wine regions sold in US grocery stores (note the data does not include sales from restaurants and other non grocery stores). The grocery store data is very indicative of what is going on in the market place but not all perfect (big disclaimer). Nevertheless, let me tell you that Washington and Riesling are looking pretty good (we like that at Pacific Rim) – the data is for the past 52 weeks total dollars sold:

Main Wine Regions:

- Big #1: California: $3,000M

- Next three: Australia: $429M, Italy: $305M, Washington: $257M

- Next Six: Chile: $87M, France: $85M, Argentina: $55M, Germany: $55M, New Zealand: $52M, Spain $42M

I know this is only grocery, but look at WA, not bad at all in this channel no?

Main Varietals:

- Big #1: Chardonnay: $942M

- Next three: Cabernet: $558M, Merlot: $423M, Pinot Gris/Grigio: $332M

- Next Six: Pinot Noir: $252M, Sauvignon Blanc: $195M, White Zinfandel: $229M, Riesling: $136M, Syrah: $136M, Zinfandel: $118

Well, looks like Riesling is about to -or will soon-  pass Syrah. Next “varietal” to beat is White Zinfandel!

Now is the time to look at yields and estimate the size of the harvest. We are practically done estimating at Pacific Rim and we think we will have a normal yield with some vineyards affected with some shatter (shatter = less berries per cluster due to bad fruit set). All in all we are happy with the size of harvest and the cooler weather which will probably delay harvest 8 to 12 days.

I have also received today a crop estimation from the Washington Association of Grape Grower (hence the post) and it confirms the delay in ripening due to cool weather. The current estimate for total crop for Washington is 156,000 tons (10 million cases) which would be flat to slightly up vs actual 2009 harvest. Chardonnay would still be #1, Riesling #2, Merlot #3 and Cabernet #4. All top four varietal would be slightly down except Merlot (be ready for some cheap Merlot out there!). Major growth in volume is projected to come from Sauvignon Blanc, Syrah (Syrah is struggling in the market place, so expect bit of oversupply) and Cabernet franc (what in heaven is going on with Cab Franc +1,500 tons?).

The data monster is coming out of its cave again after chewing on a great report released by Gallup looking at alcohol consumption in the USA (full article here). Plenty of fun data in this report highlighted below:

• 67% of american drink alcohol, 33% do not. The archetype of the non drinker is over 55, has less than a high school degree, makes less than $20K/yr, attend church weekly and is Protestant – can’t wait to meet you Mr non-drinker. The classic alcohol indulger is young, college educated, seldomly go to church, make more than $75/yr and is agnostic – you sound a bit better Mr indulger but you sound too much like Gordon Gekko.
• Beer is still the #1 preferred alcoholic drink in the USA (wine is #2, spirits #3). The archetype beer drinker is male, under 34 from the midwest while the archetype wine drinker is female, 50 and older, from the East coast (guess who I am hanging out with? hint: I am more comfortable at the Opera than at a Rodeo). Women from the south also ranks the highest for spirit consumption – go southern girls!

Just reviewed the lastest Nielsen data ending March 6th and Riesling is still the fastest growing varietal in the US in dollars (+10.7 % over last 13 weeks, +8.7% over last 52 weeks). It is ahead of Pinot Noir, Sauvignon Blanc and Cabernet Sauvignon in growth. Riesling is also gaining ground on Syrah (it is now 80% as big as syrah vs 77% a year ago) and could overtake Syrah as the #8 varietal in the country. I’ll let you guess who is #1 through #7! #10 is Zinfandel. GO RIESLING!